Evidence of bias in the Eurovision Song Contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models

DOI10.1080/02664763.2014.909792MaRDI QIDQ2953299zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Marta Blangiardo, Gianluca Baio

Publication date 4 January 2017

Published in Journal of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1308.6312, https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1403950/

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian hierarchical modelsordinal logistic regressionEurovision Song Contest

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Voting theory (91B12)

Abstract: The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual musical competition held among active members of the European Broadcasting Union since 1956. The event is televised live across Europe. Each participating country presents a song and receive a vote based on a combination of tele-voting and jury. Over the years, this has led to speculations of tactical voting, discriminating against some participants and thus inducing bias in the final results. In this paper we investigate the presence of positive or negative bias (which may roughly indicate favouritisms or discrimination) in the votes based on geographical proximity, migration and cultural characteristics of the participating countries through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Our analysis found no evidence of negative bias, although mild positive bias does seem to emerge systematically, linking voters to performers.

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Cites work

• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• Bayesian analysis for social sciences
• Bayesian modelling strategies for spatially varying regression coefficients: a multivariate perspective for multiple outcomes
• Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences

Cited in

(3)

• When is a talent contest not a talent contest? Sequential performance bias in expert evaluation
• A hierarchical generalised Bayesian SEM to assess quality of democracy in Europe
• Latent space modelling of multidimensional networks with application to the exchange of votes in Eurovision song contest

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Uses Software

• BUGS
• R2WinBUGS
• WinBUGS

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