Impact of model choice on LR assessment in case of rare haplotype match (frequentist approach)

DOI10.1111/SJOS.12250zbMATH Open1361.62055arXiv1502.04083OpenAlexW2214777553MaRDI QIDQ2965545FDOQ2965545

Giulia Cereda

Publication date: 3 March 2017

Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The likelihood ratio (LR) measures the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses. Several levels of uncertainty arise if frequentist methods are chosen for its assessment: the assumed population model only approximates the true one and its parameters are estimated through a database. Moreover, it may be wise to discard part of data, especially that only indirectly related to the hypotheses. Different reductions define different LRs. Therefore, it is more sensible to talk about "a" LR instead of "the" LR, and the error involved in the estimation should be quantified. Two frequentist methods are proposed in the light of these points for the `rare type match problem', that is when a match between the perpetrator's and the suspect's DNA profile, never observed before in the database of reference, is to be evaluated.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.04083

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zbMATH Keywords

uncertaintyfrequentist approachevidence evaluationlikelihood ratio (LR)rare type matchY chromosome STR

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Protein sequences, DNA sequences (92D20)

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Cited In (4)

• Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the Pitman-Yor process of nonnegative type
• Comment: ``Bayes, oracle Bayes and empirical Bayes
• Impact of Model Choice on LR Assessment in Case of Rare Haplotype Match (Frequentist Approach)
• The characterization of Monte Carlo errors for the quantification of the value of forensic evidence

Uses Software

• disclap
• disclapmix

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