Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

DOI10.1287/MNSC.36.7.767zbMATH Open0722.62004OpenAlexW2162736173MaRDI QIDQ3209989FDOQ3209989

Authors: Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler 

Publication date: 1990

Published in: Management Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767

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zbMATH Keywords

consensusweather forecastingmeteorologycombining probabilitiescompromise principleunanimity principleBayesian consensus models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics (62P99) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Cited In (7)

• Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements
• Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
• A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information
• Combining expert probabilities using the product of odds
• Unanimous subjective probabilities
• Repeated labeling using multiple noisy labelers
• The value of a probability forecast from portfolio theory

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