Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

DOI10.1287/MNSC.36.7.767MaRDI QIDQ3209989zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler

Publication date 1990

Published in Management Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767

zbMATH Keywords

consensusweather forecastingmeteorologycombining probabilitiescompromise principleunanimity principleBayesian consensus models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics (62P99) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

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(7)

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• Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
• Combining expert probabilities using the product of odds
• A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information
• Unanimous subjective probabilities
• Repeated labeling using multiple noisy labelers
• The value of a probability forecast from portfolio theory

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