A general Markov chain approach for disease and rumour spreading in complex networks

DOI10.1093/COMNET/CNX024MaRDI QIDQ3388883zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda, Francisco A. Rodrigues, Pablo Martín Rodríguez, Emanuele Cozzo, Yamir Moreno

Publication date 7 May 2021

Published in Journal of Complex Networks (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00682, http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/75620

zbMATH Keywords

complex networksepidemic spreadingMarkov chain modelsrumour propagation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Models of societies, social and urban evolution (91D10) Epidemiology (92D30) Small world graphs, complex networks (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C82)

Abstract: Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most important of these processes due to their practical relevance. However, despite the similarities between them, current models address both spreading dynamics separately. In this paper, we propose a general information spreading model that is based on discrete time Markov chains. The model includes all the transitions that are plausible for both a disease contagion process and rumor propagation. We show that our model not only covers the traditional spreading schemes, but that it also contains some features relevant in social dynamics, such as apathy, forgetting, and lost/recovering of interest. The model is evaluated analytically to obtain the spreading thresholds and the early time dynamical behavior for the contact and reactive processes in several scenarios. Comparison with Monte Carlo simulations shows that the Markov chain formalism is highly accurate while it excels in computational efficiency. We round off our work by showing how the proposed framework can be applied to the study of spreading processes occurring on social networks.

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Cited in

(15)

• Epidemic models with discrete state structures
• Asymptotic behavior for a modified Maki-Thompson model with directed inter-group interactions
• Spreading of two interacting diseases in multiplex networks
• Coupled dynamics of endemic disease transmission and gradual awareness diffusion in multiplex networks
• Stochastic rumors on random trees
• IMine: a customizable framework for influence mining in complex networks
• Minimizing rumor influence in multiplex online social networks based on human individual and social behaviors
• The role of multiple repetitions on the size of a rumor
• A simple Markovian spreading process with mobile agents
• Social contagion model induced by the effect of distinct social contexts
• The Maki-Thompson rumor model on infinite Cayley trees
• Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach
• The impact of effective participation in stopping misinformation: an approach based on branching processes
• Rumour propagation: an operational research approach by computational and information theory
• Estimation of aggregate losses of secondary cancer cases using PH panjer class \((a,b,1)\) distributions

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