Global threshold dynamics of a stochastic differential equation SIS model

DOI10.1016/J.JMAA.2016.10.041zbMATH Open1350.92057arXiv1506.02342OpenAlexW2962806908WikidataQ115346014 ScholiaQ115346014MaRDI QIDQ342901FDOQ342901

Authors: Chuang Xu 

Publication date: 18 November 2016

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, we further investigate the global dynamics of a stochastic differential equation SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic model recently proposed in [A. Gray et al., SIAM. J. Appl. Math., 71 (2011), 876-902]. We present a stochastic threshold theorem in term of a extit{stochastic basic reproduction number} $R_0^S:$ the disease dies out with probability one if $R_0^S<1,$ and the disease is recurrent if $R_0^{S}geqslant1.$ We prove the existence and global asymptotic stability of a unique invariant density for the Fokker-Planck equation associated with the SDE SIS model when $R_0^S>1.$ In term of the profile of the invariant density, we define a extit{persistence basic reproduction number} $R_0^P$ and give a persistence threshold theorem: the disease dies out with large probability if $R_0^{P}leqslant1,$ while persists with large probability if $R_0^P>1.$ Comparing the extit{stochastic disease prevalence} with the extit{deterministic disease prevalence}, we discover that the stochastic prevalence is bigger than the deterministic prevalence if the deterministic basic reproduction number $R_0^D>2.$ This shows that noise may increase severity of disease. Finally, we study the asymptotic dynamics of the stochastic SIS model as the noise vanishes and establish a sharp connection with the threshold dynamics of the deterministic SIS model in term of a extit{Limit Stochastic Threshold Theorem}.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.02342

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zbMATH Keywords

stochastic differential equationbasic reproduction numberFokker-Planck equationinvariant densitySIS epidemic modelglobal threshold dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Stochastic partial differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H15) PDEs in connection with statistical mechanics (35Q82)

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Cited In (25)

• The dynamics of a stochastic SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vertical transmission
• Deterministic and stochastic study for an infected computer network model powered by a system of antivirus programs
• Threshold behavior of a stochastic SIS model with Lévy jumps
• A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model incorporating Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
• A note on the stationary distribution of stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination under regime switching
• Persistence and extinction of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with regime switching and Lévy jumps
• A note about the invariance of the basic reproduction number for stochastically perturbed SIS models
• Periodic solution of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model incorporating media coverage
• The Higher Moments Dynamic on SIS Model
• Optimal harvesting policy of logistic population model in a randomly fluctuating environment
• Permanence and extinction of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with three independent Brownian motions
• Dynamical analysis of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and double epidemic hypothesis
• A stochastic \textit{feline} immunodeficiency virus model with vertical transmission
• Threshold dynamics of a stochastic \(S I R\) model with vertical transmission and vaccination
• A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate
• The bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with immunity age and constant treatment
• On a new method for the stochastic perturbation of the disease transmission coefficient in SIS models
• GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF A DIFFERENTIAL SUSCEPTIBILITY MODEL
• A stochastic SIR epidemic evolution model with non-concave force of infection: mathematical modeling and analysis
• Analysis of an epidemiological model driven by multiple noises: ergodicity and convergence rate
• A stochastic SIS epidemic infectious diseases model with double stochastic perturbations
• Dynamics of a stochastic SIR model with both horizontal and vertical transmission
• Periodic solution and ergodic stationary distribution of two stochastic SIQS epidemic systems
• Dynamical behavior of stochastic SIRS model with two different incidence rates and Markovian switching
• Global threshold dynamics of a stochastic epidemic model incorporating media coverage

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