The effect of delay on contact tracing

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2016.10.010MaRDI QIDQ343097zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors J. Müller, Bendix Koopmann

Publication date 21 November 2016

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.07054

zbMATH Keywords

contact tracingbranching processreproduction numberstochastic epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85)

Abstract: We consider a model for an infectious disease in the onset of an outbreak. We introduce contact tracing incorporating a tracing delay. The effect of randomness in the delay and the effect of the length of this delay in comparison to the infectious period of the disease respectively to a latency period on the effect of tracing, given e.g. by the change of the reproduction number, is analyzed. We focus particularly on the effect of randomness in the tracing delay.

Recommendations

• Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
• A contact tracing SIR model for randomly mixed populations
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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3862999 (Why is no real title available?)
• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• Estimating the Tracing Probability from Contact History at the Onset of an Epidemic
• Family trees of continuous-time birth-and-death processes
• Networks, epidemics and vaccination through contact tracing
• Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
• Strong approximations for epidemic models
• Threshold behaviour of emerging epidemics featuring contact tracing

Cited in

(7)

• Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
• Respect the Unstable: Delays and Saturation in Contact Tracing for Disease Control
• Contact tracing \& super-spreaders in the branching-process model
• An SEIR network epidemic model with manual and digital contact tracing allowing delays
• A contact tracing SIR model for randomly mixed populations
• Mathematical modeling of contact tracing as a control strategy of Ebola virus disease
• Exact and approximate formulas for contact tracing on random trees

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