Rare event simulation for multiscale diffusions in random environments

DOI10.1137/140991376zbMATH Open1344.60068arXiv1410.0386OpenAlexW2963651881MaRDI QIDQ3459656FDOQ3459656

Authors: Konstantinos Spiliopoulos 

Publication date: 11 January 2016

Published in: Multiscale Modeling & Simulation (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider systems of stochastic differential equations with multiple scales and small noise and assume that the coefficients of the equations are ergodic and stationary random fields. Our goal is to construct provably-efficient importance sampling Monte Carlo methods that allow efficient computation of rare event probabilities or expectations of functionals that can be associated with rare events. Standard Monte Carlo algorithms perform poorly in the small noise limit and hence fast simulations algorithms become relevant. The presence of multiple scales complicates the design and the analysis of efficient importance sampling schemes. An additional complication is the randomness of the environment. We construct explicit changes of measures that are proven to be logarithmic asymptotically efficient with probability one with respect to the random environment (i.e., in the quenched sense). Numerical simulations support the theoretical results.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.0386

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zbMATH Keywords

importance samplinglarge deviationsMonte Carlo methodrandom environmentsrare event simulationmultiscale diffusionsquenched homogenization

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Large deviations (60F10) Random fields (60G60) Central limit and other weak theorems (60F05) Diffusion processes (60J60) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10) Computational methods for stochastic equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H35) Processes in random environments (60K37) Numerical solutions to stochastic differential and integral equations (65C30)

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Cited In (9)

• Analysis and simulation of rare events for SPDEs
• Importance sampling for multiscale diffusions
• A Koopman framework for rare event simulation in stochastic differential equations
• Quenched large deviations for multiscale diffusion processes in random environments
• Discovery of rare event testing for stochastic simulations of diffusion processes
• Rare event simulation for diffusion processes via two-stage importance sampling
• Importance sampling for metastable and multiscale dynamical systems
• Scenario Generation Methods that Replicate Crossing Times in Spatially Distributed Stochastic Systems
• Importance sampling in path space for diffusion processes with slow-fast variables

Uses Software

• MersenneTwister

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