Climate change and integrodifference equations in a stochastic environment

DOI10.1007/S11538-016-0203-ZzbMATH Open1352.92178arXiv1605.03706OpenAlexW2963565145WikidataQ31131777 ScholiaQ31131777MaRDI QIDQ347053FDOQ347053

Authors: Juliette Bouhours, M. A. Lewis 

Publication date: 30 November 2016

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Climate change impacts population distributions, forcing some species to migrate poleward if they are to survive and keep up with the suitable habitat that is shifting with the temperature isoclines. Previous studies have analyzed whether populations have the capacity to keep up with shifting temperature isoclines, and have mathematically determined the combination of growth and dispersal that is needed to achieve this. However, the rate of isocline movement can be highly variable, with much uncertainty associated with yearly shifts. The same is true for population growth rates. Growth rates can be variable and uncertain, even within suitable habitats for growth. In this paper we reanalyze the question of population persistence in the context of the uncertainty and variability in isocline shifts and rates of growth. Specifically, we employ a stochastic integrodifference equation model on a patch of suitable habitat that shifts poleward at a random rate. We derive a metric describing the asymptotic growth rate of the linearized operator of the stochastic model and yielding a threshold criterion for population persistence. We demonstrate that the variability in the yearly shift and in the growth rate has a significant negative effect on the persistence in the sense that it decreases the threshold criterion for population persistence. Mathematically, we show how the persistence metric can be connected to the principal eigenvalue problem for a related integral operator, at least for the case where isocline shifting speed is deterministic. Analysis of dynamics for the case where the dispersal kernel is Gaussian leads to the existence of a critical shifting speed. Finally we illustrate our different results for butterfly population using numerical simulations and demonstrate how increased variances in isocline shifts and growth rates translate into decreased likelihoods of persistence.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.03706

Recommendations

• Life on the move: modeling the effects of climate-driven range shifts with integrodifference equations
• Integrodifference equations in the presence of climate change: persistence criterion, travelling waves and inside dynamics
• Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments
• Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations
• Can a species keep pace with a shifting climate?

zbMATH Keywords

climate changeintegrodifference equationsstochastic environmentforced migration speedpopulation persistence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Ecology (92D40) Eigenvalue problems for integral equations (45C05) Random integral equations (45R05)

Cites Work

• Discrete-time growth-dispersal models
• Integrodifference models for persistence in fragmented habitats
• Spatially-explicit matrix models
• Integrodifference models for persistence in temporally varying river environments
• Climate and competition: the effect of moving range boundaries on habitat invasibility
• Approximating the critical domain size of integrodifference equations
• Life on the move: modeling the effects of climate-driven range shifts with integrodifference equations
• Random environments and stochastic calculus
• Can a species keep pace with a shifting climate?
• Persistence and spread of a species with a shifting habitat edge
• Asymptotic properties of a continuous-space discrete-time population model in a random environment
• Bounds for the critical speed of climate-driven moving-habitat models
• Modelling the effect of temperature on the range expansion of species by reaction-diffusion equations
• Persistence in a two-dimensional moving-habitat model

Cited In (14)

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Bounds for the critical speed of climate-driven moving-habitat models
• Forward and pullback dynamics of nonautonomous integrodifference equations: basic constructions
• Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations
• Integrodifference equations in the presence of climate change: persistence criterion, travelling waves and inside dynamics
• Life on the move: modeling the effects of climate-driven range shifts with integrodifference equations
• Environmental variability and mean-reverting processes
• Propagation dynamics of a reaction-diffusion equation in a time-periodic shifting environment
• Forced waves of the Fisher-KPP equation in a shifting environment
• Range shifts under constant-speed and accelerated climate warming
• Persistence and propagation of a PDE and discrete-time map hybrid animal movement model with habitat shift driven by climate change
• Long-term climatic transitions and stochastic resonance
• Moving-habitat models: a numerical approach
• Numerical dynamics of integrodifference equations: forward dynamics and pullback attractors

This page was built for publication: Climate change and integrodifference equations in a stochastic environment

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q347053)