Climate change and integrodifference equations in a stochastic environment
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Abstract: Climate change impacts population distributions, forcing some species to migrate poleward if they are to survive and keep up with the suitable habitat that is shifting with the temperature isoclines. Previous studies have analyzed whether populations have the capacity to keep up with shifting temperature isoclines, and have mathematically determined the combination of growth and dispersal that is needed to achieve this. However, the rate of isocline movement can be highly variable, with much uncertainty associated with yearly shifts. The same is true for population growth rates. Growth rates can be variable and uncertain, even within suitable habitats for growth. In this paper we reanalyze the question of population persistence in the context of the uncertainty and variability in isocline shifts and rates of growth. Specifically, we employ a stochastic integrodifference equation model on a patch of suitable habitat that shifts poleward at a random rate. We derive a metric describing the asymptotic growth rate of the linearized operator of the stochastic model and yielding a threshold criterion for population persistence. We demonstrate that the variability in the yearly shift and in the growth rate has a significant negative effect on the persistence in the sense that it decreases the threshold criterion for population persistence. Mathematically, we show how the persistence metric can be connected to the principal eigenvalue problem for a related integral operator, at least for the case where isocline shifting speed is deterministic. Analysis of dynamics for the case where the dispersal kernel is Gaussian leads to the existence of a critical shifting speed. Finally we illustrate our different results for butterfly population using numerical simulations and demonstrate how increased variances in isocline shifts and growth rates translate into decreased likelihoods of persistence.
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Cites work
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- Asymptotic properties of a continuous-space discrete-time population model in a random environment
- Bounds for the critical speed of climate-driven moving-habitat models
- Can a species keep pace with a shifting climate?
- Climate and competition: the effect of moving range boundaries on habitat invasibility
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- Life on the move: modeling the effects of climate-driven range shifts with integrodifference equations
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- Random environments and stochastic calculus
- Spatially-explicit matrix models
Cited in
(16)- Long-term climatic transitions and stochastic resonance
- Integrodifference equations in the presence of climate change: persistence criterion, travelling waves and inside dynamics
- Forced waves of the Fisher-KPP equation in a shifting environment
- Range shifts under constant-speed and accelerated climate warming
- Moving-habitat models: a numerical approach
- Forward and pullback dynamics of nonautonomous integrodifference equations: basic constructions
- Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations
- Bounds for the critical speed of climate-driven moving-habitat models
- Propagation dynamics of a reaction-diffusion equation in a time-periodic shifting environment
- Life on the move: modeling the effects of climate-driven range shifts with integrodifference equations
- Environmental variability and mean-reverting processes
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5117162 (Why is no real title available?)
- Persistence and propagation of a PDE and discrete-time map hybrid animal movement model with habitat shift driven by climate change
- Numerical dynamics of integrodifference equations: forward dynamics and pullback attractors
- Threshold dynamics for a class of time-delayed reaction diffusion equations in a periodic shifting habitat
- Spreading properties and forced traveling waves of reaction-diffusion equations in a time-heterogeneous shifting environment
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