Approximation and estimation of very small probabilities of multivariate extreme events

DOI10.1007/S10687-016-0252-6zbMATH Open1349.60037arXiv1503.00489OpenAlexW1566715342MaRDI QIDQ347151FDOQ347151

Authors: Cees de Valk 

Publication date: 30 November 2016

Published in: Extremes (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n iid random vectors, with the probability bounded by powers of sample size with exponents below -1. One way to view classical tail limits is as limits of probability ratios. In contrast, the tail LDP provides asymptotic bounds or limits for log-probability ratios. After standardising the marginals to standard exponential, dependence is represented by a homogeneous rate function. Furthermore, the tail LDP can be extended to represent both dependence and marginals, the latter implying marginal log-GW tail limits. A connection is established between the tail LDP and residual tail dependence (or hidden regular variation) and a recent extension of it. Under a smoothness assumption, they are implied by the tail LDP. Based on the tail LDP, a simple estimator for very small probabilities of extreme events is formulated. It avoids estimation of the rate function by making use of its homogeneity. Strong consistency in the sense of convergence of log-probability ratios is proven. Simulations and an application illustrate the difference between the classical approach and the LDP-based approach.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.00489

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zbMATH Keywords

multivariate extremeshidden regular variationlarge deviation principlegeneralised Weibull tail limitlog-GW tail limitresidual tail dependence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Large deviations (60F10) Extreme value theory; extremal stochastic processes (60G70) Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32)

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Cited In (11)

• Nonparametric estimation of multivariate tail probabilities and tail dependence coefficients
• Linking representations for multivariate extremes via a limit set
• On tests to distinguish distribution tails invariant with respect to the scale parameter
• Exceedance-based nonlinear regression of tail dependence
• Samples with a limit shape, multivariate extremes, and risk
• On dealing with the unknown population minimum in parametric inference
• Estimation of extreme quantiles from heavy-tailed distributions with neural networks
• Extremiles: A New Perspective on Asymmetric Least Squares
• Asymptotic behavior of the extrapolation error associated with the estimation of extreme quantiles
• Approximation rates for multivariate exceedances
• Sub-asymptotic motivation for new conditional multivariate extreme models

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