What does the proof of Birnbaum's theorem prove?

DOI10.1214/13-EJS857zbMATH Open1294.62002arXiv1302.5468OpenAlexW2963568504MaRDI QIDQ375222FDOQ375222

Michael Evans

Publication date: 29 October 2013

Published in: Electronic Journal of Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Birnbaum's theorem, that the sufficiency and conditionality principles entail the likelihood principle, has engendered a great deal of controversy and discussion since the publication of the result in 1962. In particular, many have raised doubts as to the validity of this result. Typically these doubts are concerned with the validity of the principles of sufficiency and conditionality as expressed by Birnbaum. Technically it would seem, however, that the proof itself is sound. In this paper we use set theory to formalize the context in which the result is proved and show that in fact Birnbaum's theorem is incorrectly stated as a key hypothesis is left out of the statement. When this hypothesis is added, we see that sufficiency is irrelevant, and that the result is dependent on a well-known flaw in conditionality that renders the result almost vacuous.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.5468

Recommendations

• Discussion of ``On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle
• Discussion of ``On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 846108
• scientific article
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3921699

zbMATH Keywords

relationslikelihoodsufficiencyconditionalityequivalence relations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01) Parametric inference (62F99)

Cites Work

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• On the Foundations of Statistical Inference
• On principles and arguments to likelihood
• Sufficiency and conditionality
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• A New Proof of the Likelihood Principle
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Conditioning, Likelihood, and Coherence: A Review of Some Foundational Concepts
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Cited In (9)

• Discussion: Foundations of statistical inference, revisited
• On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle
• Discussion of ``On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle
• Blending Bayesian and Classical Tools to Define Optimal Sample-Size-Dependent Significance Levels
• Epistemic confidence in the observed confidence interval
• False confidence, non-additive beliefs, and valid statistical inference
• Who proved Haag's theorem?
• Maximal co-ancillarity and maximal co-sufficiency
• On resolving problems with conditionality and its implications for characterizing statistical evidence

This page was built for publication: What does the proof of Birnbaum's theorem prove?

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q375222)