Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

DOI10.1214/12-AOAS624MaRDI QIDQ386728zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Edward L. Ionides, José A. Tapia Granados, Zhen Wang

Publication date 10 December 2013

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1110.5254, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1380804799

zbMATH Keywords

panel datamodel misspecificationhealth economics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20)

Abstract: Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

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Cited in

(4)

• Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries
• Death and the Keynesian multiplier
• The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates
• Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

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