Maximum likelihood estimation of mark-recapture-recovery models in the presence of continuous covariates

DOI10.1214/13-AOAS644zbMATH Open1454.62451arXiv1211.0882OpenAlexW2144977072MaRDI QIDQ386758FDOQ386758

Authors: Ruth King, Roland Langrock 

Publication date: 10 December 2013

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider mark-recapture-recovery (MRR) data of animals where the model parameters are a function of individual time-varying continuous covariates. For such covariates, the covariate value is unobserved if the corresponding individual is unobserved, in which case the survival probability cannot be evaluated. For continuous-valued covariates, the corresponding likelihood can only be expressed in the form of an integral that is analytically intractable and, to date, no maximum likelihood approach that uses all the information in the data has been developed. Assuming a first-order Markov process for the covariate values, we accomplish this task by formulating the MRR setting in a state-space framework and considering an approximate likelihood approach which essentially discretizes the range of covariate values, reducing the integral to a summation. The likelihood can then be efficiently calculated and maximized using standard techniques for hidden Markov models. We initially assess the approach using simulated data before applying to real data relating to Soay sheep, specifying the survival probability as a function of body mass. Models that have previously been suggested for the corresponding covariate process are typically of the form of diffusive random walks. We consider an alternative nondiffusive AR(1)-type model which appears to provide a significantly better fit to the Soay sheep data.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.0882

Recommendations

• Continuous Covariates in Mark-Recapture-Recovery Analysis: A Comparison of Methods
• Analysing mark-recapture-recovery data in the presence of missing covariate data via multiple imputation
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1850470
• Joint Modeling of Live-Recapture, Tag-Resight, and Tag-Recovery Data
• Maximum penalized likelihood estimation in semiparametric mark-recapture-recovery models

zbMATH Keywords

Markov chainstate-space modelhidden Markov modelmissing valuesArnason-Schwarz modelSoay sheep

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Cites Work

• The Calculation of Posterior Distributions by Data Augmentation
• Semiparametric Regression in Capture-Recapture Modeling
• Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation for non-Gaussian state space models
• Maximum likelihood estimation of mark-recapture-recovery models in the presence of continuous covariates
• An Extension of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber Model for Continuous Covariates with Application to Microtus pennsylvanicus
• Hidden Markov Models for Time Series
• A unified capture-recapture framework
• Full open population capture-recapture models with individual covariates
• Continuous Covariates in Mark-Recapture-Recovery Analysis: A Comparison of Methods
• Abalone I: Analyzing mark-recapture-recovery data incorporating growth and delayed recovery
• Model selection for integrated recovery/recapture data
• Modeling Individual Effects in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model: A State-Space Formulation
• Modeling Time Series of Animal Behavior by Means of a Latent‐State Model with Feedback
• A New Method for Analysing Discrete Life History Data with Missing Covariate Values
• Analyzing Complex Capture–Recapture Data in the Presence of Individual and Temporal Covariates and Model Uncertainty
• Joint Modeling of Live-Recapture, Tag-Resight, and Tag-Recovery Data
• Capture-Recapture Studies for Multiple Strata Including Non-Markovian Transitions
• The use of auxiliary variables in capture-recapture modelling: An overview
• Factors Influencing Soay Sheep Survival: A Bayesian Analysis
• Multievent: An Extension of Multistate Capture–Recapture Models to Uncertain States
• Likelihood-based inference for asymmetric stochastic volatility models

Cited In (23)

• Estimation of population size when capture probability depends on individual states
• Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models
• Demand for live betting: an analysis using state-space models
• Capture-recapture abundance estimation using a semi-complete data likelihood approach
• Maximum likelihood estimation of mark-recapture-recovery models in the presence of continuous covariates
• A gamma-shaped detection function for line-transect surveys with mark-recapture and covariate data
• Estimating survival in continuous space from mark-dead-recovery data -- towards a continuous version of the multinomial dead recovery model
• Multistate capture-recapture models for irregularly sampled data
• On the identifiability of the trinomial model for mark-recapture-recovery studies
• Model-based time-varying clustering of multivariate longitudinal data with covariates and outliers
• Estimating abundance from multiple sampling capture-recapture data via a multi-state multi-period stopover model
• Continuous Covariates in Mark-Recapture-Recovery Analysis: A Comparison of Methods
• Analysing mark-recapture-recovery data in the presence of missing covariate data via multiple imputation
• 50-year-old curiosities: ancillarity and inference in capture-recapture models
• Laplace approximations for capture-recapture models in the presence of individual heterogeneity
• Multivariate state hidden Markov models for mark-recapture data
• Integrated population models: achieving their potential
• Maximum penalized likelihood estimation in semiparametric mark-recapture-recovery models
• Semiparametric stochastic volatility modelling using penalized splines
• A point mass proposal method for Bayesian state-space model fitting
• Correcting bias in survival probabilities for partially monitored populations via integrated models
• Uncovering a Latent Multinomial: Analysis of Mark-Recapture Data with Misidentification
• Scnditignal inference and maximum likelihood in a capture-recapture model

This page was built for publication: Maximum likelihood estimation of mark-recapture-recovery models in the presence of continuous covariates

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q386758)