Estimation of nonlinear differential equation model for glucose-insulin dynamics in type I diabetic patients using generalized smoothing
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Publication:400623
DOI10.1214/13-AOAS706zbMATH Open1454.62319arXiv1407.8386OpenAlexW1972627428WikidataQ115240863 ScholiaQ115240863MaRDI QIDQ400623FDOQ400623
Authors: Inna Chervoneva, Boris Freydin, Brian Hipszer, Tatiyana V. Apanasovich, Jeffrey I. Joseph 
Publication date: 22 August 2014
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: In this work we develop an ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of physiological regulation of glycemia in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients in response to meals and intravenous insulin infusion. Unlike for the majority of existing mathematical models of glucose-insulin dynamics, parameters in our model are estimable from a relatively small number of noisy observations of plasma glucose and insulin concentrations. For estimation, we adopt the generalized smoothing estimation of nonlinear dynamic systems of Ramsay et al. [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 69 (2007) 741-796]. In this framework, the ODE solution is approximated with a penalized spline, where the ODE model is incorporated in the penalty. We propose to optimize the generalized smoothing by using penalty weights that minimize the covariance penalties criterion (Efron [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99 (2004) 619-642]). The covariance penalties criterion provides an estimate of the prediction error for nonlinear estimation rules resulting from nonlinear and/or nonhomogeneous ODE models, such as our model of glucose-insulin dynamics. We also propose to select the optimal number and location of knots for B-spline bases used to represent the ODE solution. The results of the small simulation study demonstrate advantages of optimized generalized smoothing in terms of smaller estimation errors for ODE parameters and smaller prediction errors for solutions of differential equations. Using the proposed approach to analyze the glucose and insulin concentration data in T1DM patients, we obtained good approximation of global glucose-insulin dynamics and physiologically meaningful parameter estimates.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.8386
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Cited In (5)
- Deconvolution of non-stationary physical signals: a smooth variance model for insulin secretion rate
- Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics
- Estimation of secondary effect parameters in glycaemic dynamics using accumulating data from a virtual type 1 diabetic patient
- A tracking approach to parameter estimation in linear ordinary differential equations
- On hyperglicemic glucose basal levels in type 1 diabetes mellitus from dynamic analysis
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