Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

DOI10.1214/11-AOAS519zbMATH Open1243.62149arXiv1206.6647OpenAlexW2036899858MaRDI QIDQ439153FDOQ439153

Authors: Brian M. Hartman, Debabrata Talukdar, Bani Mallick 

Publication date: 1 August 2012

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97--114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States. We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980--2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1206.6647

Recommendations

• Modelling of innovation diffusion
• AN ANALYSIS OF NEW PRODUCT DIFFUSION PROCESS
• A new modeling approach investigating the diffusion speed of mobile telecommunication services in EU-15
• Incorporating price, advertising and distribution in diffusion models of innovation: Some theoretical and empirical results
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5663227

zbMATH Keywords

hierarchical Bayesian methodslogistic diffusion

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30) Marketing, advertising (90B60)

Cites Work

• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination
• Bayesian curve-fitting with free-knot splines
• Automatic Bayesian Curve Fitting
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Variable selection for regression models
• A Reference Bayesian Test for Nested Hypotheses and its Relationship to the Schwarz Criterion
• Bayesian Statistical Modelling
• A new product growth for model consumer durables
• Sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of culture's consequences for trade
• Symmetries of the Trihexaflexagon
• Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach
• Generalized Nonlinear Modeling With Multivariate Free-Knot Regression Splines

Cited In (1)

• Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

Uses Software

• BARS

This page was built for publication: Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q439153)