Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

DOI10.1162/00335530360535207zbMATH Open1057.91054OpenAlexW2052647713MaRDI QIDQ4418271FDOQ4418271

Authors: Christopher D. Carroll 

Publication date: 2003

Published in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535207

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zbMATH Keywords

expectational dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Macroeconomic theory (monetary models, models of taxation) (91B64)

Cited In (46)

• Consumer inflation views: micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures
• LEARNING THE INFLATION TARGET
• A continuum of path-dependent equilibrium solutions induced by sticky expectations.
• Staggered updating in an artificial financial market
• Signaling probabilities in ambiguity: who reacts to vague news?
• Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches
• On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: a comparison with five categories of field expectations
• Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps
• LEARNING TO FORECAST AND CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF OUTPUT AND INFLATION
• Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union
• LEARNING FROM THE EXPECTATIONS OF OTHERS
• Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: does heterogeneity matter?
• Inflation expectations and behavior: do survey respondents act on their beliefs?
• Transitional dynamics in sticky-information general equilibrium models
• Optimal inattentive length in macroeconomic models
• LOCK-IN OF EXTRAPOLATIVE EXPECTATIONS IN AN ASSET PRICING MODEL
• Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model
• Are the representative agent's beliefs based on efficient econometric models?
• Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models
• Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap
• A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations
• Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Responses
• Animal spirits and credit cycles
• The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle
• A nonlinear panel data model of cross-sectional dependence
• Expectation formation following pandemic events
• Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics
• Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations
• Dynamic predictor selection in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations
• DISINFLATIONARY BOOM REVERSION
• The behavioral economics of currency unions: economic integration and monetary policy
• Can we measure inflation expectations using Twitter?
• Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule
• The global stability of a class of history-dependent macroeconomic models
• The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions
• The modeling of expectations in empirical DSGE models: a survey
• Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns
• Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation
• Coexistence of equilibria in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous beliefs
• Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises
• Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach
• Consumption, personal income, financial wealth, housing wealth, and long-term interest rates: a panel cointegration approach for 50 US states
• Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: the case of rational versus extrapolative expectations
• The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations
• Switching cost models as hypothesis tests
• Time-varying consumer disagreement and future inflation

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