Chess, chance and conspiracy

DOI10.1214/088342306000000574zbMATH Open1246.91008arXiv0708.3961OpenAlexW3098398665MaRDI QIDQ449755FDOQ449755

Authors: Mark R. Segal 

Publication date: 1 September 2012

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Chess and chance are seemingly strange bedfellows. Luck and/or randomness have no apparent role in move selection when the game is played at the highest levels. However, when competition is at the ultimate level, that of the World Chess Championship (WCC), chess and conspiracy are not strange bedfellows, there being a long and colorful history of accusations levied between participants. One such accusation, frequently repeated, was that all the games in the 1985 WCC (Karpov vs Kasparov) were fixed and prearranged move by move. That this claim was advanced by a former World Champion, Bobby Fischer, argues that it ought be investigated. That the only published, concrete basis for this claim consists of an observed run of particular moves, allows this investigation to be performed using probabilistic and statistical methods. In particular, we employ imbedded finite Markov chains to evaluate run statistic distributions. Further, we demonstrate how both chess computers and game data bases can be brought to bear on the problem.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0708.3961

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zbMATH Keywords

distribution theorychessMarkov chainsdata basesrun statisticsstreaks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Noncooperative games (91A10)

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