Bayesian models and methods in public policy and government settings

DOI10.1214/10-STS331MaRDI QIDQ449814zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Stephen E. Fienberg

Publication date 1 September 2012

Published in Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.2177, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1312204010

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian clinical drug studiescensus adjustmentconfidentialitydisability measurementelection night forecastingglobal warmingsmall area estimation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

Abstract: Starting with the neo-Bayesian revival of the 1950s, many statisticians argued that it was inappropriate to use Bayesian methods, and in particular subjective Bayesian methods in governmental and public policy settings because of their reliance upon prior distributions. But the Bayesian framework often provides the primary way to respond to questions raised in these settings and the numbers and diversity of Bayesian applications have grown dramatically in recent years. Through a series of examples, both historical and recent, we argue that Bayesian approaches with formal and informal assessments of priors AND likelihood functions are well accepted and should become the norm in public settings. Our examples include census-taking and small area estimation, US election night forecasting, studies reported to the US Food and Drug Administration, assessing global climate change, and measuring potential declines in disability among the elderly.

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Cited in

(6)

• Bayesian population projections for the united nations
• Discussion of: ``Bayesian models and methods in public policy and government settings by S.E. Fienberg
• Robust likelihood inference for public policy
• Comment: Bayesian Ideas Reemerged in the 1950s
• A hierarchical Bayesian approach to record linkage and population size problems
• Forensic science and how statistics can help it

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• StatMatch

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