Causality and association: the statistical and legal approaches

DOI10.1214/07-STS234zbMATH Open1246.62228arXiv0710.4459WikidataQ56994591 ScholiaQ56994591MaRDI QIDQ449867FDOQ449867

Authors: S. A. Moynihan, K. Mengersen, R. L. Tweedie 

Publication date: 1 September 2012

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper discusses different needs and approaches to establishing ``causation that are relevant in legal cases involving statistical input based on epidemiological (or more generally observational or population-based) information. We distinguish between three versions of ``cause: the first involves negligence in providing or allowing exposure, the second involves ``cause as it is shown through a scientifically proved increased risk of an outcome from the exposure in a population, and the third considers ``cause as it might apply to an individual plaintiff based on the first two. The population-oriented ``cause is that commonly addressed by statisticians, and we propose a variation on the Bradford Hill approach to testing such causality in an observational framework, and discuss how such a systematic series of tests might be considered in a legal context. We review some current legal approaches to using probabilistic statements, and link these with the scientific methodology as developed here. In particular, we provide an approach both to the idea of individual outcomes being caused on a balance of probabilities, and to the idea of material contribution to such outcomes. Statistical terminology and legal usage of terms such as ``proof on the balance of probabilities or ``causation can easily become confused, largely due to similar language describing dissimilar concepts; we conclude, however, that a careful analysis can identify and separate those areas in which a legal decision alone is required and those areas in which scientific approaches are useful.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0710.4459

Recommendations

• From statistical evidence to evidence of causality
• The Probability of Causation under a Stochastic Model for Individual Risk
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• Probabilities of causation: Bounds and identification
• Causality: Some Statistical Aspects

zbMATH Keywords

relative riskadmissible evidenceepidemiological risklegal causationnegligencestatistical causation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics (62P99) Foundational topics in statistics (62A99)

Cites Work

• The Probability of Causation under a Stochastic Model for Individual Risk
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Causality: Some Statistical Aspects
• Homogeneity of Subpopulations and Simpson's Paradox
• Some progress and problems in meta-analysis of clinical trials
• How Dependent Causes of Death Can Make Risk Factors Appear Protective
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Cited In (3)

• The Probability of Causation under a Stochastic Model for Individual Risk
• Probabilities of causation: Three counterfactual interpretations and their identification
• From statistical evidence to evidence of causality

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