Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

DOI10.1063/1.5002009zbMATH Open1390.92135arXiv1708.04199OpenAlexW2748011444WikidataQ47553409 ScholiaQ47553409MaRDI QIDQ4565897FDOQ4565897

Authors: Lawrence M. Chen, Matt Holzer, Anne Shapiro 

Publication date: 13 June 2018

Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population SIR compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and edges represent flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.04199

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zbMATH Keywords

heat kernellinear spreadingsusceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited In (4)

• Epidemic spreading on complex networks as front propagation into an unstable state
• Spreading properties for SIR models on homogeneous trees
• Global disease spread: statistics and estimation of arrival times
• Front Propagation and Arrival Times in Networks with Application to Neurodegenerative Diseases

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