A Multivariate Hawkes Process With Gaps in Observations

DOI10.1109/TIT.2017.2735963zbMATH Open1390.60178arXiv1608.01282OpenAlexW2963051810MaRDI QIDQ4566745FDOQ4566745

Publication date: 27 June 2018

Published in: IEEE Transactions on Information Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we study causal relationships (excitations) that are realized by a multivariate Hawkes process. The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) and its variations (spatio-temporal point processes) have been used to study contagion in earthquakes, crimes, neural spiking activities, the stock and foreign exchange markets, etc. In this paper, we consider the multivariate Hawkes process with gaps in observations (MHPG). We propose a variational problem for detecting sparsely hidden relationships with a multivariate Hawkes process that takes into account the gaps from each entity. We bypass the problem of dealing with a large amount of missing events by introducing a small number of unknown boundary conditions. In the case where our observations are sparse (e.g. from 10% to 30%), we show through numerical simulations that robust recovery with MHPG is still possible even if the lengths of the observed intervals are small but they are chosen accordingly. The numerical results also show that the knowledge of gaps and imposing the right boundary conditions are very crucial in discovering the underlying patterns and hidden relationships.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.01282

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Estimation in multivariate analysis (62H12) Signal theory (characterization, reconstruction, filtering, etc.) (94A12)

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