Markov chain models for the stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion

DOI10.1155/2013/108386MaRDI QIDQ459516zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors A. Valor, F. Caleyo, J. C. Velázquez, J. M. Hallen, L. Alfonso

Publication date 13 October 2014

Published in Mathematical Problems in Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/108386

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Dynamic and nonequilibrium phase transitions (general) in statistical mechanics (82C26)

Review text

Summary: The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

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Cites work

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(3)

• The selection of corrosion prior distributions for risk based integrity modeling
• Models and inference for corrosion pit depth data
• Visualizing pitting corrosion on stainless steel

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