Asymmetric percolation drives a double transition in sexual contact networks

DOI10.1073/PNAS.1703073114zbMATH Open1404.92167arXiv1702.06224OpenAlexW2589194541WikidataQ38156889 ScholiaQ38156889MaRDI QIDQ4646196FDOQ4646196

Authors: Antoine Allard, Benjamin M. Althouse, Samuel V. Scarpino, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne 

Publication date: 11 January 2019

Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Zika virus (ZIKV) exhibits unique transmission dynamics in that it is concurrently spread by a mosquito vector and through sexual contact. We show that this sexual component of ZIKV transmission induces novel processes on networks through the highly asymmetric durations of infectiousness between males and females -- it is estimated that males are infectious for periods up to ten times longer than females -- leading to an asymmetric percolation process on the network of sexual contacts. We exactly solve the properties of this asymmetric percolation on random sexual contact networks and show that this process exhibits two epidemic transitions corresponding to a core-periphery structure. This structure is not present in the underlying contact networks, which are not distinguishable from random networks, and emerges because of the asymmetric percolation. We provide an exact analytical description of this double transition and discuss the implications of our results in the context of ZIKV epidemics. Most importantly, our study suggests a bias in our current ZIKV surveillance as the community most at risk is also one of the least likely to get tested.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.06224

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Cited In (9)

• Modeling the spread of Zika virus in a stage-structured population: effect of sexual transmission
• A mathematical analysis of Zika virus epidemic in Rio de Janeiro as a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease
• Double phase transition of the Ising model in core-periphery networks
• Percolation on complex networks: theory and application
• The Role of Directionality, Heterogeneity, and Correlations in Epidemic Risk and Spread
• Human sexual contact network as a bipartite graph
• Social contagion model induced by the effect of distinct social contexts
• The impact of contact patterns of sexual networks on Zika virus spread: a case study in Costa Rica
• Model-based projection of Zika infection risk with temperature effect: a case study in Southeast Asia

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