Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling

DOI10.3150/13-BEJ551zbMATH Open1329.60299arXiv1410.6020MaRDI QIDQ470065FDOQ470065

Authors: Rodrigo Martínez, Maroussia Slavtchova-Bojkova, Miguel González, Frank Ball 

Publication date: 11 November 2014

Published in: Bernoulli (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a time-dependent probability given by the fraction of the population vaccinated. Stochastic monotonicity and continuity results for a wide class of functions (e.g., extinction time and total number of births over all time) defined on such a branching process are proved using coupling arguments, leading to optimal vaccination schemes to control corresponding functions (e.g., duration and final size) of epidemic outbreaks. The theory is illustrated by applications to the control of the duration of mumps outbreaks in Bulgaria.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.6020

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zbMATH Keywords

continuitycouplingMonte-Carlo methodSIR epidemic modelstochastic monotonicityCrump-Mode-Jagers branching processesvaccination policies

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

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Cited In (8)

• Classical Galton-Watson branching process and vaccination
• Asymptotic fluctuations in supercritical Crump-Mode-Jagers processes
• Branching random walks and their applications for epidemic modeling
• On branching models with alarm triggerings
• Branching Processes with Incubation
• Central limit theorem for supercritical binary homogeneous Crump-Mode-Jagers processes
• Total Progeny of Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Processes: An Application to Vaccination in Epidemic Modelling
• Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of the extinction time of Bellman-Harris branching processes: an application to epidemic modelling

Uses Software

• R

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