Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling

DOI10.3150/13-BEJ551MaRDI QIDQ470065zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Rodrigo Martínez, Maroussia Slavtchova-Bojkova, Miguel González, Frank Ball

Publication date 11 November 2014

Published in Bernoulli (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.6020, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1411134454

zbMATH Keywords

continuitycouplingMonte-Carlo methodSIR epidemic modelstochastic monotonicityCrump-Mode-Jagers branching processesvaccination policies

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a time-dependent probability given by the fraction of the population vaccinated. Stochastic monotonicity and continuity results for a wide class of functions (e.g., extinction time and total number of births over all time) defined on such a branching process are proved using coupling arguments, leading to optimal vaccination schemes to control corresponding functions (e.g., duration and final size) of epidemic outbreaks. The theory is illustrated by applications to the control of the duration of mumps outbreaks in Bulgaria.

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Cited in

(8)

• Branching random walks and their applications for epidemic modeling
• Classical Galton-Watson branching process and vaccination
• On branching models with alarm triggerings
• Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of the extinction time of Bellman-Harris branching processes: an application to epidemic modelling
• Total Progeny of Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Processes: An Application to Vaccination in Epidemic Modelling
• Central limit theorem for supercritical binary homogeneous Crump-Mode-Jagers processes
• Branching Processes with Incubation
• Asymptotic fluctuations in supercritical Crump-Mode-Jagers processes

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