Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries*

DOI10.1111/J.1751-5823.2004.TB00220.XMaRDI QIDQ4832071zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Nico Keilman, Dinh Quang Pham

Publication date 3 January 2005

Published in International Statistical Review (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00220.x

zbMATH Keywords

ARCH modelempirical forecast errorsnaïve forecastNordic countriesstochastic population forecasttime seriestotal fertility rate

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Recommendations

• Joint Forecasts of U.S. Marital Fertility, Nuptiality, Births, and Marriages Using Time Series Models
• Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*
• Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries
• Comparative ARIMA models for age-specific fertility rates

Cites work

• Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation
• Forecasting Births in Post-Transition Populations: Stochastic Renewal with Serially Correlated Fertility
• Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3395169 (Why is no real title available?)

Cited in

(3)

• Comparative ARIMA models for age-specific fertility rates
• Joint Forecasts of U.S. Marital Fertility, Nuptiality, Births, and Marriages Using Time Series Models
• Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*

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