Modeling the effect of temperature on ozone-related mortality
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Publication:484047
mortalityair pollutionmonotone regressionspatial modelingsemi-parametric regressionozone-temperature interaction
Nonparametric regression and quantile regression (62G08) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)
Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while controlling for temperature as a confounder, but less is known about the joint effects of ozone and temperature. The extent of the health effects of changing ozone levels and temperatures will depend on whether these effects are additive or synergistic. In this paper we propose a spatial, semi-parametric model to estimate the joint ozone-temperature risk surfaces in 95 US urban areas. Our methodology restricts the ozone-temperature risk surfaces to be monotone in ozone and allows for both nonadditive and nonlinear effects of ozone and temperature. We use data from the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) and show that the proposed model fits the data better than additive linear and nonlinear models. We then examine the synergistic effect of ozone and temperature both nationally and locally and find evidence of a nonlinear ozone effect and an ozone-temperature interaction at higher temperatures and ozone concentrations.
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Cited in
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- Bayesian nonparametric monotone regression
- A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change
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- Modeling the spatial behavior of the meteorological drivers' effects on extreme ozone
- Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points
- Bayesian modeling of temperature-related mortality with latent functional relationships
- Semiparametric spatial mixed effects single index models
- A statistical modeling approach for air quality data based on physical dispersion processes and its application to ozone modeling
- Accounting for temperature when modeling population health risk due to air pollution
- Flexible distributed lag models using random functions with application to estimating mortality displacement from heat-related deaths
- High dose extrapolation in climate change projections of heat-related mortality
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