A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 in Italy with Possible Control Strategies

DOI10.1007/978-981-33-6264-2_6zbMATH Open1470.92311arXiv2004.08588OpenAlexW3142033842MaRDI QIDQ4956897FDOQ4956897

Authors: Sumit Kumar, Sandeep Sharma, Fateh Singh, Ps Bhatnagar, Nitu Kumari 

Publication date: 2 September 2021

Published in: Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19 (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current situation in Italy, in this paper, we will estimate the possible time for the end of the pandemic in the country. The impact of lockdown and rapid isolation on the spread of the pandemic are also discussed. Further, we have studied four of the most pandemic affected regions in Italy. Using the proposed model, a prediction has been made about the duration of pandemic in these regions. The variation in the basic reproduction number corresponding to the sensitive parameters of the model is also examined.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08588

Recommendations

• Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: a case study of Italy
• Modeling, Analysis and Control of COVID-19 in Italy: Study of Scenarios
• Optimal control to limit the spread of COVID-19 in Italy
• Modeling and optimal control analysis of COVID-19: case studies from Italy and Spain
• Mathematical modeling for novel coronavirus (<scp>COVID</scp>‐19) and control
• Mathematical modelling and optimal control strategies of a multistrain COVID-19 spread
• A multiregional extension of the SIR model, with application to the COVID‐19 spread in Italy

zbMATH Keywords

parameter estimationbasic reproduction numberSEIR modelstability analysisbackward bifurcation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23)

Cites Work

• Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications
• Mathematical approaches for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases: An introduction. Proceedings of a tutorial Introduction to epidemiology and immunology. An overview to the IMA workshop on mathematical approaches for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases: Models, methods and theory. IMA program on mathematics in biology

Cited In (5)

• Modeling and optimal control analysis of COVID-19: case studies from Italy and Spain
• Basic reproduction number estimation and forecasting of COVID-19: a case study of India, Brazil and Peru
• The epidemic of COVID-19 in Italy: investigations and responses from compartmental models
• A model for the outbreak of COVID-19: vaccine effectiveness in a case study of Italy
• Application of dynamic mode decomposition and compatible window-wise dynamic mode decomposition in deciphering COVID-19 dynamics of India

This page was built for publication: A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 in Italy with Possible Control Strategies

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q4956897)