A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 in Italy with Possible Control Strategies

DOI10.1007/978-981-33-6264-2_6MaRDI QIDQ4956897zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Sumit Kumar, Sandeep Sharma, Fateh Singh, Ps Bhatnagar, Nitu Kumari

Publication date 2 September 2021

Published in Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19 (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08588

zbMATH Keywords

parameter estimationbasic reproduction numberSEIR modelstability analysisbackward bifurcation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23)

Abstract: We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current situation in Italy, in this paper, we will estimate the possible time for the end of the pandemic in the country. The impact of lockdown and rapid isolation on the spread of the pandemic are also discussed. Further, we have studied four of the most pandemic affected regions in Italy. Using the proposed model, a prediction has been made about the duration of pandemic in these regions. The variation in the basic reproduction number corresponding to the sensitive parameters of the model is also examined.

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Cites work

• Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications
• Mathematical approaches for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases: An introduction. Proceedings of a tutorial Introduction to epidemiology and immunology. An overview to the IMA workshop on mathematical approaches for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases: Models, methods and theory. IMA program on mathematics in biology

Cited in

(5)

• Modeling and optimal control analysis of COVID-19: case studies from Italy and Spain
• Basic reproduction number estimation and forecasting of COVID-19: a case study of India, Brazil and Peru
• Application of dynamic mode decomposition and compatible window-wise dynamic mode decomposition in deciphering COVID-19 dynamics of India
• The epidemic of COVID-19 in Italy: investigations and responses from compartmental models
• A model for the outbreak of COVID-19: vaccine effectiveness in a case study of Italy

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