Populations with interaction and environmental dependence: from few, (almost) independent, members into deterministic evolution of high densities

DOI10.1080/15326349.2019.1575755MaRDI QIDQ4967289zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors P. Jagers, Fima Klebaner, Pavel Chigansky

Publication date 3 July 2019

Published in Stochastic Models (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03506

zbMATH Keywords

population dynamicsbranching processescarrying capacitydensity dependencethreshold size

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Protein sequences, DNA sequences (92D20) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

Abstract: Many populations, e.g. of cells, bacteria, viruses, or replicating DNA molecules, start small, from a few individuals, and grow large into a noticeable fraction of the environmental carrying capacity $K$. Typically, the elements of the initiating, sparse set will not be hampering each other and their number will grow from $Z_0=z_0$ in a branching process or Malthusian like, roughly exponential fashion, $Z_{t}sim{a}^{t}W$, where $Z_t$ is the size at discrete time $toinfty$, $a>1$ is the offspring mean per individual (at the low starting density of elements, and large $K$), and $W$ a sum of $z_0$ i.i.d. random variables. It will, thus, become detectable (i.e. of the same order as $K$) only after around $logK$ generations, when its density $X_t:=Z_t/K$ will tend to be strictly positive. Typically, this entity will be random, even if the very beginning was not at all stochastic, as indicated by lower case $z_0$, due to variations during the early development. However, from that time onwards, law of large numbers effects will render the process deterministic, though initiated by the random density at time log $K$, expressed through the variable $W$. Thus, $W$ acts both as a random veil concealing the start and a stochastic initial value for later, deterministic population density development. We make such arguments precise, studying general density and also system-size dependent, processes, as $Koinfty$. As an intrinsic size parameter, $K$ may also be chosen to be the time unit. The fundamental ideas are to couple the initial system to a branching process and to show that late densities develop very much like iterates of a conditional expectation operator.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(1)

• An approximation of populations on a habitat with large carrying capacity

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