Are the beginning and ending phases of epidemics characterized by the next generation matrices? A case study of drug-sensitive and resistant tuberculosis model

DOI10.1142/S0218339021500157MaRDI QIDQ5016495zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Hyun Mo Yang

Publication date 13 December 2021

Published in Journal of Biological Systems (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06857

zbMATH Keywords

additional reproduction numberbasic reproduction numberepidemiological modelinggross reproduction numberstability analysis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: In epidemiological modelings, the spectral radius of the next generation matrix evaluated at the trivial equilibrium was considered as the basic reproduction number. Also, the global stability of the trivial equilibrium point was determined by the left eigenvector associated to that next generation matrix. More recently, the fraction of susceptible individuals was also obtained from the next generation matrix. By revisiting drug sensitive and resistant tuberculosis model, the gross reproduction number and the fraction of susceptible individuals are calculated. Hence, the next generation matrices shed light to the evolution of the dynamics: the beginning of the epidemics via the reproduction number and the approaching to the epidemics level via the asymptotic fraction of susceptible individuals.

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Cites work

• Global stability of infectious disease models using Lyapunov functions
• Proof of conjecture in: The basic reproduction number obtained from Jacobian and next generation matrices -- a case study of dengue transmission modelling
• Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
• The transovarial transmission in the dynamics of dengue infection: epidemiological implications and thresholds
• Theoretical assessment of the relative incidences of sensitive and resistant tuberculosis epidemic in presence of drug treatment

Cited in

(2)

• Proof of conjecture in: The basic reproduction number obtained from Jacobian and next generation matrices -- a case study of dengue transmission modelling
• Evaluating the impacts of relaxation and mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 on the COVID-19 epidemic based on a mathematical model: a case study of São Paulo state (Brazil)

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