A branching random-walk model of disease outbreaks and the percolation backbone

DOI10.1088/1751-8121/AC6716zbMATH Open1506.92087arXiv2112.08523OpenAlexW4223999376MaRDI QIDQ5048533FDOQ5048533

Authors: P. M. C. de Oliveira, Jeferson J. Arenzon, D. A. Stariolo 

Publication date: 16 November 2022

Published in: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents diffuse on a regular lattice and the disease may be transmitted when an infected and a susceptible agents are nearest neighbors. We study the geometric properties of both the connected cluster of sites visited by infected agents (outbreak cluster) and the set of clusters with sites that have not been visited. By changing the density of agents, our results show that there is a mixed-order (hybrid) transition where the region affected by the disease is finite in one phase but percolates through the system beyond the threshold. Moreover, the outbreak cluster seems to have the same exponents of the backbone of the critical cluster of the ordinary percolation while the clusters with unvisited sites have a size distribution with a Fisher exponent $au<2$.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08523

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zbMATH Keywords

SIR modelbackbone percolationbranching random-walk

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology
• A simple model of global cascades on random networks
• Automata network SIR models for the spread of infectious diseases in populations of moving individuals
• Critical Binder cumulant in two-dimensional anisotropic Ising models
• Fundamentals of spreading processes in single and multilayer complex networks
• Conformal invariance and critical dynamics
• Percolation and the pandemic
• An overview of epidemic models with phase transitions to absorbing states running on top of complex networks
• Are the tails of percolation thresholds Gaussians?

Cited In (1)

• Critically spanning epidemic outbreak cluster in random geometric networks

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