An agent-based model of COVID-19 diffusion to plan and evaluate intervention policies
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Publication:5051002
DOI10.1007/978-3-030-91646-6_9zbMATH Open1504.92156arXiv2108.08885OpenAlexW3194634621MaRDI QIDQ5051002FDOQ5051002
Authors: Gianpiero Pescarmona, Pietro Terna, Alberto Acquadro, Paolo Pescarmona, G. Russo, Emilio Sulis, Stefano Terna 
Publication date: 18 November 2022
Published in: Crowd Dynamics, Volume 3 (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii) the places of contagion specified in a detailed way. The infection transmission is related to three factors: the characteristics of both the infected person and the susceptible one, plus those of the space in which contact occurs. The model includes the structural data of Piedmont, an Italian region, but we can easily calibrate it for other areas. The micro-based structure of the model allows factual, counterfactual, and conditional simulations to investigate both the spontaneous or controlled development of the epidemic. The model is generative of complex epidemic dynamics emerging from the consequences of agents' actions and interactions, with high variability in outcomes and stunning realistic reproduction of the successive contagion waves in the reference region. There is also an inverse generative side of the model, coming from the idea of using genetic algorithms to construct a meta-agent to optimize the vaccine distribution. This agent takes into account groups' characteristics -- by age, fragility, work conditions -- to minimize the number of symptomatic people.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.08885
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Cites Work
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- Productivity in Times of Covid-19: An Agent-Based Model Approach
- Determination of optimal prevention strategy for COVID-19 based on multi-agent simulation
- Learning COVID-19 mitigation strategies using reinforcement learning
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