Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures

DOI10.1073/PNAS.2007560117MaRDI QIDQ5073142zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors A. Balbi, Claudio Grimaldi

Publication date 5 May 2022

Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.07586

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Statistical astronomy (85A35)

Abstract: One of the major goals for astronomy in the next decades is the remote search for biosignatures (i.e. the spectroscopic evidence of biological activity) in exoplanets. Here, we adopt a Bayesian statistical framework to discuss the implications of such future searches, both in the case when life is detected, and when no definite evidence is found. We show that even a single detection of biosignatures in the vicinity of our stellar system, in a survey of similar size to what will be obtainable in the next two decades, would affect significantly our prior belief on the frequency of life in the universe, even starting from a neutral or pessimistic stance. In particular, after such discovery, an initially agnostic observer would be led to conclude that there are more than $10^5$ inhabited planets in the galaxy with a probability exceeding $95$%. However, this conclusion would be somewhat weakened by the viability of transfer of biological material over interstellar distances, as in panspermia scenarios. Conversely, the lack of significant evidence of biosignatures would have little effect, leaving the assessment of the abundance of life in the galaxy still largely undetermined.

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Cites work

• A review of exoplanetary biosignatures

Cited in

(3)

• A review of exoplanetary biosignatures
• Bayesian approach to SETI
• Solving Fermi's paradox

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