Global stability of nonlinear stochastic SEI epidemic model with fluctuations in transmission rate of disease

DOI10.1155/2017/6313620MaRDI QIDQ507683zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Olusegun Michael Otunuga

Publication date 7 February 2017

Published in International Journal of Stochastic Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6313620

zbMATH Keywords

asymptotic stabilitybasic reproductive numberepidemic invasioninfection-free equilibrium

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: We derive and analyze the dynamic of a stochastic SEI epidemic model for disease spread. Fluctuations in the transmission rate of the disease bring about stochasticity in model. We discuss the asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium by first deriving the closed form deterministic (\(R_0\)) and stochastic (\(\mathcal{R}_0\)) basic reproductive number. Contrary to some author's remark that different diffusion rates have no effect on the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, we showed that even if no epidemic invasion occurs with respect to the deterministic version of the SEI model (i.e., \(R_0 < 1\)), epidemic can still grow initially (if \(\mathcal{R}_0 > 1\)) because of the presence of noise in the stochastic version of the model. That is, diffusion rates can have effect on the stability by causing a transient epidemic advance. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion was derived in the presence of external noise.

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Cites work

• Asymptotic behavior of an SEI epidemic model with diffusion
• Global stability of an SEI epidemic model
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3438157 (Why is no real title available?)
• Stochastic stability of differential equations. With contributions by G. N. Milstein and M. B. Nevelson

Cited in

(6)

• Stability of an SEIR epidemic model with independent stochastic perturbations
• Global stability of systems of nonlinear Itô differential equations with aftereffect and N. V. Azbelev's \(W\)-method
• Dynamical behavior of a stochastic sei epidemic model with saturation incidence and logistic growth
• Dynamics of a stochastic multigroup SEI epidemic model
• Stochastic modeling and optimal control of HIV-1 infection dynamics under combination antiretroviral therapy
• Transition probability density function for number of infections in a population satisfying a stochastic SIS-epidemic model

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