Bayesian comparison of stochastic models of dispersion

DOI10.1017/JFM.2022.472MaRDI QIDQ5085103zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Martin T. Brolly, A. L. Teckentrup, J. R. Maddison, J. Vanneste

Publication date 27 June 2022

Published in Journal of Fluid Mechanics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.01581

zbMATH Keywords

machine learningturbulent mixingdata-driven methodBrownian particle dynamicsLangevin particle dynamicstwo-dimensional isotropic turbulence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Learning and adaptive systems in artificial intelligence (68T05) Turbulent transport, mixing (76F25) Statistical turbulence modeling (76F55) Basic methods in fluid mechanics (76M99)

Abstract: Stochastic models of varying complexity have been proposed to describe the dispersion of particles in turbulent flows, from simple Brownian motion to complex temporally and spatially correlated models. A method is needed to compare competing models, accounting for the difficulty in estimating the additional parameters that more complex models typically introduce. We employ a data-driven method, Bayesian model comparison (BMC), which assigns probabilities to competing models based on their ability to explain observed data. We focus on the comparison between the Brownian and Langevin dynamics for particles in two-dimensional isotropic turbulence, with data that consists of sequences of particle positions obtained from simulated Lagrangian trajectories. We show that, while on sufficiently large timescales the models are indistinguishable, there is a range of timescales on which the Langevin model outperforms the Brownian model. While our set-up is highly idealised, the methodology developed is applicable to more complex flows and models of particle dynamics.

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Cited in

(4)

• Evaluating predictors of dispersion: a comparison of dominance analysis and Bayesian model averaging
• Conditional relative acceleration statistics and relative dispersion modelling
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