Sets of Priors Reflecting Prior-Data Conflict and Agreement

DOI10.1007/978-3-319-40596-4_14zbMATH Open1452.68231arXiv1610.07217OpenAlexW3106244189MaRDI QIDQ5115735FDOQ5115735

Gero Walter, Frank P. A. Coolen

Publication date: 18 August 2020

Published in: Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge. This has the advantage that prior-data conflict sensitivity can be modelled: Ranges of posterior inferences should be larger when prior and data are in conflict. We propose a new method for generating prior sets which, in addition to prior-data conflict sensitivity, allows to reflect strong prior-data agreement by decreased posterior imprecision.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.07217

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian inferenceimprecise probabilityconjugate priorsprior-data conflictstrong prior-data agreement

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Reasoning under uncertainty in the context of artificial intelligence (68T37)

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• Imprecision and prior-data conflict in generalized Bayesian inference

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