Inference on breakdown frontiers

DOI10.3982/QE1288zbMATH Open1454.62110arXiv1705.04765OpenAlexW3003590073MaRDI QIDQ5116130FDOQ5116130

Authors: Matthew A. Masten, Alexandre Poirier 

Publication date: 24 August 2020

Published in: Quantitative Economics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Given a set of baseline assumptions, a breakdown frontier is the boundary between the set of assumptions which lead to a specific conclusion and those which do not. In a potential outcomes model with a binary treatment, we consider two conclusions: First, that ATE is at least a specific value (e.g., nonnegative) and second that the proportion of units who benefit from treatment is at least a specific value (e.g., at least 50%). For these conclusions, we derive the breakdown frontier for two kinds of assumptions: one which indexes relaxations of the baseline random assignment of treatment assumption, and one which indexes relaxations of the baseline rank invariance assumption. These classes of assumptions nest both the point identifying assumptions of random assignment and rank invariance and the opposite end of no constraints on treatment selection or the dependence structure between potential outcomes. This frontier provides a quantitative measure of robustness of conclusions to relaxations of the baseline point identifying assumptions. We derive $sqrtN$-consistent sample analog estimators for these frontiers. We then provide two asymptotically valid bootstrap procedures for constructing lower uniform confidence bands for the breakdown frontier. As a measure of robustness, estimated breakdown frontiers and their corresponding confidence bands can be presented alongside traditional point estimates and confidence intervals obtained under point identifying assumptions. We illustrate this approach in an empirical application to the effect of child soldiering on wages. We find that sufficiently weak conclusions are robust to simultaneous failures of rank invariance and random assignment, while some stronger conclusions are fairly robust to failures of rank invariance but not necessarily to relaxations of random assignment.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04765

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zbMATH Keywords

sensitivity analysistreatment effectsnonparametric identificationpartial identificationdirectional differentiabilityrank invarianceselection on unobservables

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Nonparametric hypothesis testing (62G10)

Cited In (10)

• Bounds on distributional treatment effect parameters using panel data with an application on job displacement
• Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification
• Assessing Sensitivity to Unconfoundedness: Estimation and Inference
• A Comparison of Two Quantile Models With Endogeneity
• Transparency in Structural Research
• A more credible approach to parallel trends
• Identification and inference of network formation games with misclassified links
• Uniform inference for value functions
• A condition for the identification of multivariate models with binary instruments
• Identifying the effects of a program offer with an application to head start

Uses Software

• Matlab

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