Modeling the Control of COVID-19: Impact of Policy Interventions and Meteorological Factors

zbMATH Open1448.92130arXiv2003.02985MaRDI QIDQ5118078FDOQ5118078

Author name not available (Why is that?)

Publication date: 7 September 2020

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong strategies to prevent the situation from deteriorating. Home quarantine is the most important one to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In order to estimate the effect of population quarantine, we divide the population into seven categories for simulation. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is given. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model can describe the transmission of COVID-19 accurately, the corresponding prediction of the trend of the disease is given. The home quarantine strategy plays an important role in controlling the disease spread and speeding up the decline of COVID-19. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed and discussed adequately. We should pay attention to that, though the epidemic is in decline in China, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. Once the control strategy is removed, COVID-19 may become a normal epidemic disease just like flu. Further control for the disease is still necessary, we focus on the relationship between the spread rate of the virus and the meteorological conditions. A comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors on both high and low migration groups. As the progress on the new vaccine, we design detail vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of efficient vaccination. Once the vaccine comes into use, the numerical simulation provide a promptly prospective research.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.02985

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zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19vaccination strategydynamical modelisolation strategymeteorological index

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Cites Work

• Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
• Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of hepatitis B virus in China
• A discrete epidemic model for SARS transmission and control in China
• Implication of sexual transmission of Zika on dengue and Zika outbreaks
• A time delay dynamical model for outbreak of 2019-nCov and the parameter identification

Cited In (10)

• USE OF EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS IN A FRACTIONAL FRAMEWORK TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS
• A fractional‐order model of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) with governmental action and individual reaction
• Mathematical Analysis of Diagnosis Rate Effects in Covid-19 Transmission Dynamics with Optimal Control
• The Sooner Strict Public Health Strategies are Applied the Lower the Peak of the Epidemic: the SARS-CoV-2 Case
• Mathematical analysis and optimal strategy for a COVID-19 pandemic model with intervention
• A computational approach to identifiability analysis for a model of the propagation and control of COVID-19 in Chile
• Optimizing the quarantine cost for suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico
• The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity
• Beyond just ``flattening the curve: optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions
• Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples

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