Bayesian nonparametric multiresolution estimation for the American Community Survey

DOI10.1214/16-AOAS968zbMATH Open1454.62052arXiv1508.00604OpenAlexW2963431458MaRDI QIDQ512420FDOQ512420

Authors: Terrance D. Savitsky 

Publication date: 24 February 2017

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Bayesian hierarchical methods implemented for small area estimation focus on reducing the noise variation in published government official statistics by borrowing information among dependent response values. Even the most flexible models confine parameters defined at the finest scale to link to each data observation in a one-to-one construction. We propose a Bayesian multiresolution formulation that utilizes an ensemble of observations at a variety of coarse scales in space and time to additively nest parameters we define at a finer scale, which serve as our focus for estimation. Our construction is motivated by and applied to the estimation of $1-$ year period employment levels, indexed by county, from statistics published at coarser areal domains and multi-year intervals in the American Community Survey (ACS). We construct a nonparametric mixture of Gaussian processes as the prior on a set of regression coefficients of county-indexed latent functions over multiple survey years. We evaluate a modified Dirichlet process prior that incorporates county-year predictors as the mixing measure. Each county-year parameter of a latent function is estimated from multiple coarse scale observations in space and time to which it links. The multiresolution formulation is evaluated on synthetic data and applied to the ACS.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.00604

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zbMATH Keywords

Markov chain Monte CarloGaussian processsmall area estimationsurvey samplingDirichlet processBayesian hierarchical modelslatent models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Sampling theory, sample surveys (62D05)

Cited In (6)

• Incompatibility of trends in multi-year estimates from the American community survey
• Accounting for survey design in Bayesian disaggregation of survey-based areal estimates of proportions: an application to the American Community Survey
• Bayesian nonparametric multivariate spatial mixture mixed effects models with application to American Community Survey special tabulations
• Joint point and variance estimation under a hierarchical Bayesian model for survey count data
• A Bayesian Approach to 2000 Census Evaluation Using ACE Survey Data and Demographic Analysis
• Bayesian dependent functional mixture estimation for area and time-indexed data: an application for the prediction of monthly county employment

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