When ideas go viral -- complex bifurcations in a two-stage transmission model

DOI10.1007/978-3-030-73241-7_14MaRDI QIDQ5153036zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors J. Heidecke, M. V. Barbarossa

Publication date 28 September 2021

Published in Trends in Biomathematics: Chaos and Control in Epidemics, Ecosystems, and Cells (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.08792

zbMATH Keywords

diffusionbifurcationepidemic modelopinion model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30) Bifurcations of limit cycles and periodic orbits in dynamical systems (37G15)

Abstract: We consider the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model for transmission dynamics with two nonlinear stages of contagion. The proposed model is inspired by phenomena occurring in epidemiology (spread of infectious diseases) or social dynamics (spread of opinions, behaviors, ideas), and described by a compartmental approach. Upon contact with a promoter (contagious individual), a naive (susceptible) person can either become promoter himself or become $extitweakened$, hence more vulnerable. Weakened individuals become contagious when they experience a second contact with members of the promoter group. After a certain time in the contagious compartment, individuals become inactive (are insusceptible and cannot spread) and are removed from the chain of transmission. We combine this two-stage contagion process with renewal of the naive population, modeled by means of transitions from the weakened or the inactive status to the susceptible compartment. This leads to rich dynamics, showing for instance coexistence and bistability of equilibria and periodic orbits. Properties of (nontrivial) equilibria are studied analytically. In addition, a numerical investigation of the parameter space reveals numerous bifurcations, showing that the dynamics of such a system can be more complex than those of classical epidemiological ODE models.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(4)

• Mathematical modelling and numerical bifurcation analysis of inbreeding and interdisciplinarity dynamics in academia
• A competing infection model for the spread of different viewpoints of a divisive idea
• A generalized model of social and biological contagion
• Understanding viral video dynamics through an epidemic modelling approach

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