Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities

DOI10.1080/14697688.2019.1637927zbMATH Open1431.91383arXiv1805.06682OpenAlexW3104793822WikidataQ127351047 ScholiaQ127351047MaRDI QIDQ5215440FDOQ5215440

Nakahiro Yoshida, Ioane Muni Toke

Publication date: 10 February 2020

Published in: Quantitative Finance (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from the baseline intensity. Consistency and asymptotic behavior of the estimators are given in several frameworks, and model selection is discussed with information criteria and penalization. The model is well-suited for high-frequency financial data: fitted models using easily interpretable covariates show an excellent agreement with empirical data. Extensive investigation on tick data consequently helps identifying trading signals and important factors determining the limit order book dynamics. We also illustrate the potential use of the framework for out-of-sample predictions.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.06682

zbMATH Keywords

imbalancepoint processesspreadHawkes processesCox processestrading signalsorder book modelsratio models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Financial markets (91G15)

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Cited In (7)

• Estimating the efficient price from the order flow: a Brownian Cox process approach
• Quasi-likelihood analysis and its applications
• A simple microstructure model based on the Cox-BESQ process with application to optimal execution policy
• Quasi-likelihood analysis for marked point processes and application to marked Hawkes processes
• Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling
• Analysis and modeling of client order flow in limit order markets
• Analysis of order book flows using a non-parametric estimation of the branching ratio matrix

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