Emulating satellite drag from large simulation experiments
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Publication:5237174
DOI10.1137/18M1170157zbMATH Open1430.62085arXiv1712.00182OpenAlexW2963508324MaRDI QIDQ5237174FDOQ5237174
Authors: Furong Sun, Robert B. Gramacy, Benjamin Haaland, Earl Lawrence, Andrew J. Walker 
Publication date: 17 October 2019
Published in: SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Obtaining accurate estimates of satellite drag coefficients in low Earth orbit is a crucial component in positioning and collision avoidance. Simulators can produce accurate estimates, but their computational expense is much too large for real-time application. A pilot study showed that Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models could accurately emulate simulations. However, cubic runtime for training GPs means that they could only be applied to a narrow range of input configurations to achieve the desired level of accuracy. In this paper we show how extensions to the local approximate Gaussian Process (laGP) method allow accurate full-scale emulation. The new methodological contributions, which involve a multi-level global/local modeling approach, and a set-wise approach to local subset selection, are shown to perform well in benchmark and synthetic data settings. We conclude by demonstrating that our method achieves the desired level of accuracy, besting simpler viable (i.e., computationally tractable) global and local modeling approaches, when trained on seventy thousand core hours of drag simulations for two real-world satellites: the Hubble space telescope (HST) and the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE).
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.00182
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Cited In (11)
- Statistical Tests for Cross-Validation of Kriging Models
- Scaled Vecchia approximation for fast computer-model emulation
- Active Learning for Deep Gaussian Process Surrogates
- Locally induced Gaussian processes for large-scale simulation experiments
- A Clustered Gaussian Process Model for Computer Experiments
- Large-scale local surrogate modeling of stochastic simulation experiments
- Sensitivity Prewarping for Local Surrogate Modeling
- Vecchia-approximated Deep Gaussian Processes for Computer Experiments
- Faster Kriging: facing high-dimensional simulators
- Gaussian Process Prediction using Design-Based Subsampling
- Managing spherical proof masses in drag-free satellites with application to the LISA experiment
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