Emulating satellite drag from large simulation experiments
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Publication:5237174
Abstract: Obtaining accurate estimates of satellite drag coefficients in low Earth orbit is a crucial component in positioning and collision avoidance. Simulators can produce accurate estimates, but their computational expense is much too large for real-time application. A pilot study showed that Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models could accurately emulate simulations. However, cubic runtime for training GPs means that they could only be applied to a narrow range of input configurations to achieve the desired level of accuracy. In this paper we show how extensions to the local approximate Gaussian Process (laGP) method allow accurate full-scale emulation. The new methodological contributions, which involve a multi-level global/local modeling approach, and a set-wise approach to local subset selection, are shown to perform well in benchmark and synthetic data settings. We conclude by demonstrating that our method achieves the desired level of accuracy, besting simpler viable (i.e., computationally tractable) global and local modeling approaches, when trained on seventy thousand core hours of drag simulations for two real-world satellites: the Hubble space telescope (HST) and the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE).
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Cited in
(11)- Statistical Tests for Cross-Validation of Kriging Models
- Scaled Vecchia approximation for fast computer-model emulation
- Locally induced Gaussian processes for large-scale simulation experiments
- Active Learning for Deep Gaussian Process Surrogates
- A Clustered Gaussian Process Model for Computer Experiments
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- Faster Kriging: facing high-dimensional simulators
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