Principal causal effect identification and surrogate end point evaluation by multiple trials
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Abstract: Principal stratification is a causal framework to analyze randomized experiments with a post-treatment variable between the treatment and endpoint variables. Because the principal strata defined by the potential outcomes of the post-treatment variable are not observable, we generally cannot identify the causal effects within principal strata. Motivated by a real data set of phase III adjuvant colon clinical trials, we propose approaches to identifying and estimating the principal causal effects via multiple trials. For the identifiability, we remove the commonly-used exclusion restriction assumption by stipulating that the principal causal effects are homogeneous across these trials. To remove another commonly-used monotonicity assumption, we give a necessary condition for the local identifiability, which requires at least three trials. Applying our approaches to the data from adjuvant colon clinical trials, we find that the commonly-used monotonicity assumption is untenable, and disease-free survival with three-year follow-up is a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival with five-year follow-up, which satisfies both the causal necessity and the causal sufficiency. We also propose a sensitivity analysis approach based on Bayesian hierarchical models to investigate the impact of the deviation from the homogeneity assumption.
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- Authors' reply to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment'
- Priyantha Wijayatunga's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to the pretrial safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Tyler VanderWeele's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Kuldeep Kumar's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human-decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Victor Richmond Jose's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Jane Luise Hutton's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Eugenie Hunsicker's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Efrén Cruz Cortés and Debashis Ghosh's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human-decision making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Mats Stensrud, Vanessa Didelez and Aaron Sarvet's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Aaron Sarvet and Mats Stensrud's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Pier Luigi Conti's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Peng Ding's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Andre Python's contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Seconder of the vote of thanks and contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Proposer of the vote of thanks and contribution to the discussion of `Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment' by Imai et al.
- Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: application to pretrial public safety assessment
- A causal framework for surrogate endpoints with semi-competing risks data
- Causal measures of the treatment effect captured by candidate surrogate endpoints
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