The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy

DOI10.1007/S00199-010-0549-7MaRDI QIDQ540415zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Volker Wieland, Maik H. Wolters

Publication date 3 June 2011

Published in Economic Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/files/7902/10_08.pdf

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingBayesian estimationmodel uncertaintybusiness cyclesheterogeneous beliefsforecast distribution

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Macroeconomic theory (monetary models, models of taxation) (91B64) Statistical methods; economic indices and measures (91B82) Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.) (91B74) Heterogeneous agent models (91B69)

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1188943 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 777596 (Why is no real title available?)
• Animal spirits and monetary policy
• Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models
• Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations
• Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia
• Endogenous economic fluctuations. Studies in the theory of rational beliefs
• Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations
• Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs
• Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions
• Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model
• Inflation Persistence
• Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations
• Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. Economy
• On rational belief equilibria
• On the structure and diversity of rational beliefs
• Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies
• Rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty
• The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy

Cited in

(6)

• Are the representative agent's beliefs based on efficient econometric models?
• Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations
• Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations
• Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy
• Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises
• Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia

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