Propensities and conditional probabilities

DOI10.1016/J.IJAR.2009.06.009MaRDI QIDQ541817zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Isabelle Drouet

Publication date 8 June 2011

Published in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2009.06.009

zbMATH Keywords

conditionalizationHumphreys' paradoxpropensity

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Philosophy of mathematics (00A30) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to probability theory (60-02) History of probability theory (60-03) Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05)

Review text

This article deals with the objection that Paul Humphreys raised in 1985 against the propensity interpretation of probability, going back to Pierce and Popper. ``Humphreys' paradox goes basically as follows: Since propensities reflect asymmetric causal tendencies in time, they cannot obey Kolomogorov's probability calculus, since the latter one implies the Bayes' fomula, which allows to invert conditional probabilities in a non-trival sense. In this article the author provides an updated review on existing solutions, and concludes that none of them is completely satisfactory in view of Humphreys' 2004 rejoinder. Eventually she formulates and discusses a original, positive solution.

Recommendations

• Humphreys's paradox and the interpretation of inverse conditional propensities
• Propensities and transcendental assumptions
• Can there be a propensity interpretation of conditional probabilities?
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Cites work

• Conditional probability, conditional events, and single-case propensities
• Conditionalization and observation
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3129188 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3151566 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3857064 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3770630 (Why is no real title available?)
• Humphreys's paradox and the interpretation of inverse conditional propensities
• Propensities and probabilities

Cited in

(11)

• On quantum propensities: two arguments revisited
• Propensities and frequencies : Inference to the best explanation
• The propensity theory: a decision-theoretic restatement
• The propensity interpretation of probability: a re-evaluation
• Can there be a propensity interpretation of conditional probabilities?
• Falsification of Propensity Models by Statistical Tests and the Goodness-of-Fit Paradox
• Conditional probability, conditional events, and single-case propensities
• Propensities and probabilities
• Propensities and transcendental assumptions
• Twenty-one arguments against propensity analyses of probability
• Behavioral probabilities

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