Signatures of universal characteristics of fractal fluctuations in global mean monthly temperature anomalies

DOI10.1007/S11424-011-9020-5zbMATH Open1215.62121arXiv0808.2388OpenAlexW2117376955MaRDI QIDQ545447FDOQ545447

A. M. Selvam

Publication date: 22 June 2011

Published in: Journal of Systems Science and Complexity (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Selfsimilar space-time fractal fluctuations are generic to dynamical systems in nature such as atmospheric flows, heartbeat patterns, population dynamics, etc. The physics of the long-range correlations intrinsic to fractal fluctuations is not yet identified. It is important to quantify the physics underlying the irregular fractal fluctuations for predictability studies. A general systems theory for fractals visualizes the emergence of successively larger scale fluctuations to result from the space-time integration of enclosed smaller scale fluctuations. The model predictions are as follows. The probability distribution and the power spectrum for fractal fluctuations is the same inverse power law function incorporating the golden mean. The predicted distribution is close to the Gaussian distribution for small-scale fluctuations but exhibits fat long tail for large-scale fluctuations with higher probability of occurrence than predicted by Gaussian distribution. Since the power (variance i.e. square of eddy amplitude) spectrum also represents the probability densities as in the case of quantum systems such as the electron or photon, fractal fluctuations exhibit quantumlike chaos. The fine structure constant for spectrum of fractal fluctuations is a function of the golden mean and is analogous to atomic spectra equal to about 1/137. Global gridded time series data sets of monthly mean temperatures for the period 1880 - 2007/2008 are analysed to show that data sets and corresponding power spectra exhibit distributions close to the model predicted inverse power law distribution. The model predicted and observed universal spectrum for interannual variability rules out linear secular trends in global monthly mean temperatures. Global warming results in intensification of fluctuations of all scales and manifested immediately in high frequency fluctuations.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0808.2388

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zbMATH Keywords

normal distributionlong-range correlationsfractalsgolden meanpower law distributionsfat tail distributions

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Fractals (28A80)

Cites Work

• Self-organized criticality
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Universal quantification for deterministic chaos in dynamical systems
• Critical fluctuation in daily incidence of acute myocardial infarction
• Superstrings, Cantorian-fractal spacetime and quantum-like chaos in atmospheric flows
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Mathematical methods for physics and engineering

Uses Software

• plfit

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