THEORY OF SELF-SIMILAR OSCILLATORY FINITE-TIME SINGULARITIES

DOI10.1142/S0129183103004462MaRDI QIDQ5716111zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Kayo Ide, D. Sornette

Publication date 9 January 2006

Published in International Journal of Modern Physics C (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106054

zbMATH Keywords

dynamical systemspopulationself-similaritysingularitiesspiralslog-periodicityfinancial crashmaterials rupture

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Marketing, advertising (90B60)

Abstract: This is a short letter summarizing the long paper cond-mat/0106047 in which we present a simple two-dimensional dynamical system reaching a singularity in finite time decorated by accelerating oscillations due to the interplay between nonlinear positive feedback and reversal in the inertia. This provides a fundamental equation for the dynamics of (1) stock market prices in the presence of nonlinear trend-followers and nonlinear value investors, (2) the world human population with a competition between a population-dependent growth rate and a nonlinear dependence on a finite carrying capacity and (3) the failure of a material subject to a time-varying stress with a competition between positive geometrical feedback on the damage variable and nonlinear healing. The rich fractal scaling properties of the dynamics are traced back to the self-similar spiral structure in phase space unfolding around an unstable spiral point at the origin.

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Cites work

• Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices
• Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture
• The dynamics of speculative behaviour

Cited in

(8)

• A simple finite-difference stock market model involving intrinsic value
• Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation
• Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000
• Renormalization group analysis of the 2000-2002 anti-bubble in the US S\& P500 index: explanation of the hierarchy of five crashes and prediction
• Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture
• MARKET DEPTH AND PRICE DYNAMICS: A NOTE
• A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes
• STOCK MECHANICS: A GENERAL THEORY AND METHOD OF ENERGY CONSERVATION WITH APPLICATIONS ON DJIA

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