Geophysical flows under location uncertainty, Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading

DOI10.1080/03091929.2017.1312101zbMATH Open1506.76026arXiv1611.03041OpenAlexW3102013845WikidataQ114640129 ScholiaQ114640129MaRDI QIDQ5880355FDOQ5880355

Authors: Valentin Resseguier, Bertrand Chapron, E. Mémin 

Publication date: 9 March 2023

Published in: Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy (QG) and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy (SQG) models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB code examples are available online.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03041

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zbMATH Keywords

uncertainty quantificationensemble forecastsstochastic sub-grid parameterization

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

PDEs in connection with fluid mechanics (35Q35) PDEs with randomness, stochastic partial differential equations (35R60) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30) Statistical solutions of Navier-Stokes and related equations (76D06) Stochastic analysis applied to problems in fluid mechanics (76M35) PDEs in connection with geophysics (35Q86) Statistical turbulence modeling (76F55) Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (86A05)

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Cited In (22)

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