Geophysical flows under location uncertainty, Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading
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Publication:5880355
PDEs in connection with fluid mechanics (35Q35) PDEs with randomness, stochastic partial differential equations (35R60) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30) Statistical solutions of Navier-Stokes and related equations (76D06) Stochastic analysis applied to problems in fluid mechanics (76M35) PDEs in connection with geophysics (35Q86) Statistical turbulence modeling (76F55) Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (86A05)
Abstract: Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy (QG) and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy (SQG) models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB code examples are available online.
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