Adaptive resources allocation CUSUM for binomial count data monitoring with application to COVID-19 hotspot detection

DOI10.1080/02664763.2022.2117288MaRDI QIDQ6063301zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Jiuyun Hu, Yajun Mei, Sarah E. Holte, Hao Yan

Publication date 7 November 2023

Published in Journal of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.05045

zbMATH Keywords

count datachange point detectionCUSUM statisticsmulti-arm banditadaptive resources allocation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Optimal stopping in statistics (62L15)

Abstract: In this paper, we present an efficient statistical method (denoted as "Adaptive Resources Allocation CUSUM") to robustly and efficiently detect the hotspot with limited sampling resources. Our main idea is to combine the multi-arm bandit (MAB) and change-point detection methods to balance the exploration and exploitation of resource allocation for hotspot detection. Further, a Bayesian weighted update is used to update the posterior distribution of the infection rate. Then, the upper confidence bound (UCB) is used for resource allocation and planning. Finally, CUSUM monitoring statistics to detect the change point as well as the change location. For performance evaluation, we compare the performance of the proposed method with several benchmark methods in the literature and showed the proposed algorithm is able to achieve a lower detection delay and higher detection precision. Finally, this method is applied to hotspot detection in a real case study of county-level daily positive COVID-19 cases in Washington State WA) and demonstrates the effectiveness with very limited distributed samples.

Cites work

• 10.1162/153244303321897663
• A test for a change in a parameter occurring at an unknown point
• Bayesian nonparametric change point detection for multivariate time series with missing observations
• CONTINUOUS INSPECTION SCHEMES
• Change-point detection in binomial thinning processes, with applications in epidemiology
• Change-point detection in high-dimensional covariance structure
• Efficient scalable schemes for monitoring a large number of data streams
• High-dimensional change-point detection under sparse alternatives
• Inference about the change-point in a sequence of binomial variables
• Numerical Comparison of CUSUM and Shiryaev–Roberts Procedures for Detecting Changes in Distributions
• Optimal stopping times for detecting changes in distributions
• Optimum Multi-Stream Sequential Change-Point Detection With Sampling Control
• Procedures for Reacting to a Change in Distribution
• S3T: A score statistic for spatiotemporal change point detection
• Truncated Sequential Change‐point Detection based on Renewal Counting Processes

Cited in

(1)

• Editorial to the special issue: modern streaming data analytics

This page was built for publication: Adaptive resources allocation CUSUM for binomial count data monitoring with application to COVID-19 hotspot detection

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q6063301)