Adaptive resources allocation CUSUM for binomial count data monitoring with application to COVID-19 hotspot detection

DOI10.1080/02664763.2022.2117288arXiv2208.05045OpenAlexW4294397864MaRDI QIDQ6063301FDOQ6063301

Authors: Jiuyun Hu, Yajun Mei, Sarah E. Holte, Hao Yan 

Publication date: 7 November 2023

Published in: Journal of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, we present an efficient statistical method (denoted as "Adaptive Resources Allocation CUSUM") to robustly and efficiently detect the hotspot with limited sampling resources. Our main idea is to combine the multi-arm bandit (MAB) and change-point detection methods to balance the exploration and exploitation of resource allocation for hotspot detection. Further, a Bayesian weighted update is used to update the posterior distribution of the infection rate. Then, the upper confidence bound (UCB) is used for resource allocation and planning. Finally, CUSUM monitoring statistics to detect the change point as well as the change location. For performance evaluation, we compare the performance of the proposed method with several benchmark methods in the literature and showed the proposed algorithm is able to achieve a lower detection delay and higher detection precision. Finally, this method is applied to hotspot detection in a real case study of county-level daily positive COVID-19 cases in Washington State WA) and demonstrates the effectiveness with very limited distributed samples.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.05045

zbMATH Keywords

count datachange point detectionCUSUM statisticsmulti-arm banditadaptive resources allocation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Optimal stopping in statistics (62L15)

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Cited In (1)

• Editorial to the special issue: modern streaming data analytics

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