Estimation of the incubation time distribution for COVID‐19

DOI10.1111/STAN.12231MaRDI QIDQ6067720zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Piet Groeneboom

Publication date 14 December 2023

Published in Statistica Neerlandica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.12649

zbMATH Keywords

incubation timeiterative convex minorant algorithmnonparametric MLEsmooth nonparametric density estimationWeibull distribution

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX) Nonparametric inference (62Gxx) Mathematical programming (90Cxx)

Abstract: We consider smooth nonparametric estimation of the incubation time distribution of COVID-19, in connection with the investigation of researchers from the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (Dutch: RIVM) of 88 travelers from Wuhan: Backer et al (2020). The advantages of the smooth nonparametric approach w.r.t. the parametric approach, using three parametric distributions (Weibull, log-normal and gamma) in Backer et al (2020) is discussed. It is shown that the typical rate of convergence of the smooth estimate of the density is $n^{2/7}$ in a continuous version of the model, where $n$ is the sample size. The (non-smoothed) nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) itself is computed by the iterative convex minorant algorithm (Groeneboom and Jongbloed (2014)). All computations are available as { t R} scripts in Groeneboom (2020).

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Cited in

(5)

• Effects of latency on estimates of the COVID-19 replication number
• Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection
• Universal statistics of incubation periods and other detection times via diffusion models
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7353875 (Why is no real title available?)
• Estimation of the incubation time distribution in the singly and doubly interval censored model

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