Adaptive Conditional Distribution Estimation with Bayesian Decision Tree Ensembles
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Publication:6077599
DOI10.1080/01621459.2022.2037431arXiv2005.02490OpenAlexW3023109782MaRDI QIDQ6077599FDOQ6077599
Authors: Antonio R. Linero, Jared S. Murray 
Publication date: 18 October 2023
Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: We present a Bayesian nonparametric model for conditional distribution estimation using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The generative model we use is based on rejection sampling from a base model. Typical of BART models, our model is flexible, has a default prior specification, and is computationally convenient. To address the distinguished role of the response in the BART model we propose, we further introduce an approach to targeted smoothing which is possibly of independent interest for BART models. We study the proposed model theoretically and provide sufficient conditions for the posterior distribution to concentrate at close to the minimax optimal rate adaptively over smoothness classes in the high-dimensional regime in which many predictors are irrelevant. To fit our model we propose a data augmentation algorithm which allows for existing BART samplers to be extended with minimal effort. We illustrate the performance of our methodology on simulated data and use it to study the relationship between education and body mass index using data from the medical expenditure panel survey (MEPS).
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02490
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