Determination and estimation of optimal quarantine duration for infectious diseases with application to data analysis of COVID‐19

DOI10.1111/BIOM.13444MaRDI QIDQ6079490zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Ruoyu Wang, Qihua Wang

Publication date 30 October 2023

Published in Biometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.05002

zbMATH Keywords

incubation periodkernel estimationmaximum likelihoodoptimal solutionprobability constraintstatistical modeling

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: Quarantine measure is a commonly used non-pharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of quarantine. In this paper, a policy with optimal quarantine duration is developed. The policy suggests different quarantine durations for every individual with different characteristic. The policy is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the average quarantine duration of uninfected people with the constraint that the probability of symptom presentation for infected people attains the given value closing to 1. The optimal solution for the quarantine duration is obtained and estimated by some statistic methods with application to analyzing COVID-19 data.

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Cites work

• Asymptotic Statistics
• COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability
• Discrete associated kernels method and extensions
• Optimal and sub-optimal quarantine and isolation control in SARS epidemics
• Optimal control of deterministic epidemics
• Statistical analysis with missing data
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Cited in

(4)

• Analysis and parametrical estimation with real COVID-19 data of a new extended SEIR epidemic model with quarantined individuals
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7338419 (Why is no real title available?)
• Joint estimation of case fatality rate of COVID‐19 and power of quarantine strategy performed in Wuhan, China
• Dynamic analysis of pandemic cross-regional transmission considering quarantine strategies in the context of limited medical resources

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